近50a浙江省气候变化特征分析
投稿时间: 2000-09-26  最后修改时间: 2001-01-02  点此下载全文
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作者单位
施能 南京气象学院大气科学系 
马丽 计算机科学与技术系, 南京210044 
袁晓玉 南京气象学院大气科学系 
顾骏强 浙江省应用气候研究所, 杭州310017 
基金项目:浙江省重大项目991103364
中文摘要:用1951~1999年资料详细研究了浙江省4个观测站的年、季、月降水与气温的气候变化特征。提出了用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟方法对气象要素的长期变化进行统计检验。指出,气候变化也可以出现在气象要素的变率上,提出了用计算滑动均方差的方法来识别这种变率异常的方法
中文关键词:气候变化  趋势变化  滑动均方差
 
Climate variation features over Zhejiang province in the last 50 years
Abstract:A detailed study is undertaken of climatic variation features of rainfall and temperature on a monthly,seasonal and annual basis at 4 stations in Zhejiang in terms of 1951~1999 data.Monte Carlo scheme is used to test the long term variation of the meteorological elements.Result shows that the climatic change can also occur in the elements.At last,a method is developed to identify the variability anomaly by means of the sliding mean square deviation.
keywords:climate change  trend change  sliding mean square deviation
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