东亚冬、夏季风百年强度指数及其气候变化
投稿时间: 1995-02-16  最后修改时间: 1995-12-23  点此下载全文
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作者单位
施能 南京气象学院气象学系, 南京 210044 
鲁建军 黄石市气象局, 黄石 435002 
朱乾根 南京气象学院气象学系, 南京 210044 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金49475265
中文摘要:定义了东亚冬、夏季风强度指数,计算了1873~1989年夏季、冬季及其逐月的东亚季风强度指数,研究了冬、夏季风强度指数的长期气候变化。结果表明,100多年来,东亚夏季风明显加强,冬季风变化不大,稍有减弱。突变分析结果表明,1918年前后,东亚夏季风突变增强,与北半球夏季地面气温突变增暖是同步发生的。但是,冬季风不太明显的突变发生于1958年。此外,用滑动相关系数分析了东亚冬夏季风与北半球地面气温的关系,指出它们之间的相关关系有年代际变化。
中文关键词:东亚冬/夏季风  季风强度指数  突变  年代际变化  滑动相关分析
 
EAST ASIAN WINTER/SUMMER MONSOON INTENSITY INDICES WITH THEIR CLIMATIC CHANGE IN 1873~1989
Abstract:Defined are East Asian winter/summer monsoon intensity indices and calculated 1873 ~1989 winter/summer and monthly(JJA/DJF)indices with the secular climatic change investigated.Evidence suggests that the summer monsoon was greatly enhanced for the study period with little change or even slightly enfeebled for the winter wind.Also,analysis shows that the summer monsoon displayed enhamced sudden change around 1918 concurrently with the abrupt rise in northern summer surface temperature,and,in contrast,the winter monsoon showed less noticeable abrupt change in 1958.Finally,sliding correlation analysis was made to investigate the relation between the winter/summer monsoons and northern surface temperature,indicating an interdecadal variation in their correlation.
keywords:East-Asian winter/summer monsoon  abrupt change  intensity index  interdecadal variation  sliding correlation analysis
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