全球气候变暖背景下登陆我国台风特征的分析
投稿时间: 2005-07-06  最后修改时间: 2005-09-23  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
曹楚 南京信息工程大学, 大气科学系, 江苏, 南京, 210044  
彭加毅 南京信息工程大学, 大气科学系, 江苏, 南京, 210044  
余锦华 南京信息工程大学, 资源环境与城乡规划系, 江苏, 南京, 210044 jhyu@nuis.tedu.cn 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40205009);国家科技部社会公益类项目(2002DJB20067)
中文摘要:利用1949—2002年西北太平洋热带气旋、登陆我国台风和全球地面温度资料,对登陆我国台风的频数、强度以及登陆位置的年际变化,特别是趋势特征进行了分析,并与西北太平洋台风的变化特征作了对比。结果表明:在全球气候变暖背景下,我国登陆台风频数的减少趋势没有西北太平洋台风频数的减少趋势强;登陆台风的平均强度和极端强度均有减弱趋势,极端强度的减弱趋势尤为明显,但其强度弱于西北太平洋台风。在1968—2002年全球明显增暖时段,我国台风登陆位置偏向我国中部,西北太平洋台风在生命史中强度达最强时的位置有向北移动的趋势。
中文关键词:全球气候变暖  登陆台风  统计分析
 
An Analysis on the Characteristics of Landfalling Typhoons in China under Global Climate Warming
Abstract:Inter-annual variations and especially,trends of frequency,intensity and location of landfalling typhoons in China are investigated in contrast with typhoons in the Northwestern Pacific based on the data of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific,landfalling typhoons in China and the global surface temperature from 1949 to 2002.Results show that under global warming,the decreasing trend of the frequency of landfalling typhoons in China was weaker than that of typhoons in the Northwestern Pacific,and the average and especially,extreme intensities of landfalling typhoons in China were decreasing,but the decreasing trend was weaker than that of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific.In the global warming period of 1968—2002,the locations of landfalling typhoons in China mostly situated in the middle of the east coastal area of China and the position whereat Northwestern Pacific typhoons reached their maximum strength had a trend to move northwards during its life.
keywords:global climate warming  landfalling typhoon  statistical analysis
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