2015/2016冬季北极世纪之暖与超级厄尔尼诺对东亚气候异常的影响
投稿时间: 2016-10-08  最后修改时间: 2016-10-08  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
贺圣平 中国科学院大气物理研究所 hshp@mail.iap.ac.cn 
王会军 南京信息工程大学  
徐鑫萍 南京信息工程大学  
李靖祎 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家重点研发计划; 国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:利用1980—2016年美国国家海洋与大气管理局气候预测中心的ENSO指数和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了2015/2016年冬季北极增暖和超级厄尔尼诺对东亚气候的影响。2015/2016年冬季热带中东太平洋爆发了超级厄尔尼诺事件,尽管大气环流出现了对ENSO的响应特征(如西北太平洋反气旋异常,东亚南部南风异常),但东亚(尤其是我国东北、华北地区)1月的气温却显著偏低。分析表明,此次东亚气温偏低现象可能与2016年1月北极显著增暖有关。1980-2016年1月再分析资料的统计诊断分析结果显示,巴伦支海—喀拉海气温的升高会引起局地大气的上升运动异常,之后在下游(70簙90篍附近)向南运动,并在西伯利亚地区(50簙70篘 ,60簙100篍)下沉,使得西伯利亚高压增强。其东侧的北风异常导致东亚气温偏低。基于Ni駉-3.4指数、北极温度指数,采用多元线性拟合所得到的2016年1月东亚气温的回报结果与观测气温之间的空间系数为0.71,表明2016年1月北极增暖以及热带中东太平洋的厄尔尼诺事件能够从一定程度上解释东亚气温偏低的现象。
中文关键词:北极增暖 超级厄尔尼诺 东亚气温 西伯利亚高压
 
Impact of the Arctic warming and supper El Ni駉 in 2015/2016 winter on the East Asian climate anomaly
Abstract:The influences of Arctic warming and supper El Ni駉 during 2015/2016 winter on the East Asian winter climate was investigated by using the ENSO index from Climate Prediction Center of NOAA and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1980—2016. In 2015/2016 winter, a supper El Ni駉 emerged in the central tropical Pacific. Even though the response of atmospheric circulation to the ENSO forcing was much obvious (e.g. western North Pacific anticyclone anomaly, southerly anomaly over south parts of East Asia), East Asian was much colder than normal in January. Analysis indicated that the colder conditions over East Asian might be related to the Arctic warming that occurred in January 2016. The statistical results from the reanalysis data during 1980—2016 revealed that the warming in Barents-Kara sea could induce anomalous ascending motion in situ which extended eastward (around 70簙90篍) and descended in Siberia (50簙70篘, 60簙100篍). Consequently, the Siberian high was intensified, leading to anomalous northerly in its east which favored the cold conditions over East Asia. The hindcasted surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asian in 2016 January, which was obtained from the multivariate linear regression of SAT onto the Arctic temperature index and Ni駉-3.4 indices, resembled well the observed counterpart, with the spatial correlation of 0.71. It implied that the Arctic warming and supper El Ni駉 during 2015/2016 winter could explain the East Asian colder conditions to some extent.
keywords:Arctic warming  supper El Ni駉  East Asian temperature  Siberia high
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