基于FMM算法的夏秋季登陆中国热带气旋路径分类及特征分析
投稿时间: 2016-05-09  最后修改时间: 2016-06-08  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
耿焕同 南京信息工程大学 htgeng@nuist.edu.cn 
谢佩妍 南京信息工程大学 644753895@qq.com 
史达伟 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:为进一步探索登陆我国热带气旋(TC)不同路径发生发展的规律、源地与消亡阶段的特征,利用有限混合模型FMM算法将中国气象局上海台风所(STI)整编的1951-2012年6-11月登陆我国的TC路径集分为3类,并对3类不同路径的季节变化、发生频数、环流形势进行对比分析。研究表明每类TC存在明显的特征差异:在夏季第一类、第二类出现频数高于第三类,但在秋季第三类发生频数最高;第一类生成、消亡时辐合程度最强且副高脊线西伸脊点位置偏北,第二类消亡时低层辐合最弱且位置偏西,第三类生成时纬向风垂直切变最强且位置偏东南。
中文关键词:有限混合模型FMM  热带气旋  路径分类  气候特征  大尺度环流场
 
FMM Algorithm for Classification of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones Tracks over China and Characteristic Analysis
Abstract:To further explore tropical cyclones’ (TCs) law and climate characteristics of occurrence, development and disappearance. The study applies finite-mixed-model (FMM) based clustering algorithms to cluster landfall tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) over China in summer and autumn (from June to November). The data of typhoon best-tracks and circulation fields are from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) and NCEP/NCAR four-time/day reanalysis during the period 1951-2012. Three clusters are analyzed for comparison in terms of TC’s active season, frequency and circulation. The findings are summarized as follows. In summer, Cluster-1 and Cluster-2 appear more frequently than Cluster-3, but in autumn, the highest frequency of occurrence of Cluster-3. The west ridge point of the subtropical ridge line’s location of Cluster-1 is the most northerly, and the convergence in genesis and disappearance is the strongest, while Cluster-2’s point locates the most westerly, and the convergence is the strongest in disappearance. The location of Cluster-3’s west ridge point is the most easterly and southerly, and this cluster owns the strongest vertical zonal wind shear when occurring. This study will provide reference for climate diagnosis.
keywords:Finite Mixed Model (FMM). Tropical Cyclone. Track Clustering. Climate Characteristics. Large-scale Circulation Field.
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