长江中下游6-7月降水的降尺度模型
投稿时间: 2016-01-20  最后修改时间: 2016-02-27  点此下载全文
引用本文:
摘要点击次数: 152
全文下载次数: 
作者单位E-mail
宋进波 南京信息工程大学 songjinb@126.com 
陆尔 南京信息工程大学 elu@nuist.edu.cn 
屠菊青 南京信息工程大学  
丁滢 南京信息工程大学  
刘思源 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001);国家自然科学基金项目(41275092,41230422,41230528);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:摘要:利用基于偏相关的强迫因子选取方法,以长江中下游6-7月降水为例,进行了降水变率的归因分析,并建立了相应的统计降尺度模型。结果表明,影响长江中下游6-7月降水的强迫因子主要有两个:西太平洋850hPa的位势高度(WPH8)和黑潮延伸区的海表温度(KSST)。WPH8反映的是西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游降水的影响;KSST反映了黑潮延伸区的变率。基于这两个因子的线性降尺度模型能较好地拟合长江中下游6-7月的降水,在独立检验阶段,模型体现出了可靠性,因而可用于长江中下游降水的季节预测。
中文关键词:统计降尺度  偏相关  位势高度  海表温度
 
A Statistical Downscaling Model for the Summer Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin
Abstract:Abstract: With the partial correlation-based method, forcing factors are sought for the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin in June and July, and a statistical downscaling model is established for the precipitation. The major forcing factors for the precipitation over the region include the 850-hPa geopotential height over the western Pacific (WPH8) and the sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio extension (KSST). The WPH8 may indicate the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on the rainfall, and the KSST may reflect the variability of the Kuroshio extension. Results show that the regression with the WPH8 and KSST can well fit the variability of the rainfall. The independent validation demonstrates the robustness of the downscaling model, which can be hopefully used in the seasonal prediction of the summer rainfall over the region.
keywords:statistical downscaling  partial correlation  geopotential height  sea surface temperature
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器