西北太平洋和南海不同时段生成热带气旋频数及水汽条件的特征分析
投稿时间: 2014-02-11  最后修改时间: 2014-02-11  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
朱伟军 南京信息工程大学 weijun@nuist.edu.cn 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075070); 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306028)
中文摘要:应用CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径集资料对1961~2010 年南海和西北太平洋生成热带气旋频数进行分析,根据近50年热带气旋频数逐月分布特征,将全年热带气旋的活动期划分为平静期(TC少发月)和活跃期(TC多发月)两个时段,运用经验正交展开、多项式拟合、合成分析等方法,对不同时段生成于南海和西北太平洋的热带气旋频数的时空分布及年际变化特征进行了分析。通过找到不同时段南海和西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的异常年份,对TC频数异常年生成源地水汽辐合辐散特征进行了初步分析,探讨了TC频数对源地水汽条件异常变化的响应。
中文关键词:热带气旋生成频数、水汽通量、相关分析
 
Classification study on the characteristics and causation of the tropical cyclone formation frequency over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific in different periods
Abstract:In order to research the difference of the characteristics of the tropical cyclone formation frequency over the South China and the Northwest Pacific in different periods, data of the CMA-STI best track dataset for tropical cyclones during the 50 yr period 1961-2010 were used. According to monthly distribution of the tropical cyclone frequency in nearly 50 years, the year-round tropical activity period is divided into the active period and the calm period. Method of the Polynomial fitting, EOF and Synthetic Analysis etc were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and interannual variations of the tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and the Northwest in different periods. It also preliminary analyzed the moisture conditions during the abnormal years of the TC formation over the South China Sea and the Northwest in different periods, in an effort to reveal the TC frequency response to the water vapor anomalies over the main source areas of TC.
keywords:TC frequency, Water vapor flux, Correlation Analysis
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