基于信息扩散理论的四川盆地农业旱灾风险评估
投稿时间: 2013-03-31  最后修改时间: 2013-03-31  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
陈建杰 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室 chenbaijie@yahoo.com.cn 
余锦华 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室 jhyu@nuist.edu.cn  
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:摘要:以四川盆地农业旱灾灾情资料为数据,基于信息扩散理论,研究不同风险水平下的农业旱灾发生的概率及其分布。用正态信息扩散方法拟合农业旱灾受灾率的分布通过了K-S检验,表明采用信息扩散方法进行风险评估是可行的。引入风险差值,四川盆地的眉山、重庆等地区风险差值为正,表明由20世纪末进入21世纪初,上述区域发生受灾率xi≥10%和xi≥40%的农业旱灾的风险是有所增加的。以受灾率xi≥5%和xi≥40%的超越概率作为农业旱灾风险区划依据,对四川盆地进行风险区划。
中文关键词:信息扩散  旱灾受灾率  风险评估  风险区划
 
Agriculture drought risk assessment based on information diffusion theory in the Sichuan Basin
Abstract:Abstract: Based on agricultural drought disaster data of Sichuan basin and the information diffusion theory, the probability and its distribution of agriculture drought are discussed under different risk level. The fitted distribution of agricultural drought disaster ratio passes the K-S test by the method of normal information diffusion. It shows that agriculture drought risk assessment is feasible by the normal information diffusion method. Introducing the risk difference, the risk difference of Chongqing, Meishan et al, is positive in the Sichuan basin. The investigation shows that the risk difference of agricultural drought disaster ratio of which are greater than or equal to 10% and 40% increases from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of 21st century. The exceedance probability is used as the drought risk regionalization basis for risk zoning of Sichuan basin, of which the drought disaster ratio are greater than or equal to 5% and 40% .
keywords:information diffusion  the drought disaster ratio  risk assessment  risk zoning
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