城乡分类对中国城市化影响评估的不确定性分析
投稿时间: 2013-03-03  最后修改时间: 2013-03-03  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
储鹏 南京信息工程大学 106825818@qq.com 
江志红 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428505)、中科院碳专项项目(XDA05090000),国家科技支撑项目(2012BAC22B00),气候变化专项(CCSF201224)共同资助。
中文摘要:摘要:本文分别通过DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据产品、MODIS土地覆盖数据、人口数据,进行城市、乡村气象站点划分,探讨了不同划分方法对城市化影响评估的不确定性,在此基础上,综合三种方法均同时认定的城市、乡村站点,并使用经均一化订正的地面观测气温数据,分析1961~2004年我国不同区域和12个城市群城市热岛效应(UHI)对气温变化的影响。结果表明:不同方法城乡站点分类的结果差异较大,城市化研究结果的不确定性明显;用三种方法同时认定的城市、乡村站点对比表明,中国东南部城市化对区域气温增暖的贡献较强,西北部稍弱,东北和西南部则无明显一致的影响;而城市化影响的季节变化则有南北差异,南方以春,秋显著,北方以冬、春季显著。
中文关键词:城市化  元数据  增暖贡献
 
The uncertainty analysis of Urban and rural classification on Urbanization impact assessment
Abstract:Abstract Has been,there is a greater difference in the assessment of the magnitude of the impact of urban development on climate change,Since the division of city and country take site also exists in different methods. For this problem,this paper through the DMSP/OLS night light data products,MODIS land cover data,population data,three different methods to distinguish between city country station,and the analysis of different partition methods led to the city for the effect of uncertainty,on this basis,try to find a reliable urban and rural station division standard,and using the homogenization temperature revised ground observation data as the site actual change sequence,analysis of China and the 12 city groups urban heat island effect influence on climate change during 1961~2004. Studies show that,different methods of urban and rural site classification results in great difference,this directly led to the city of the uncertainty of the results is quite obvious. Even so,the common site sequence shows,urbanization on temperature is strongly influenced in Southeast,Northwest weak,Northeast and southwest is not significant. North-South differences in the seasonal variation of the impact of urbanization. Southern significantly in spring and autumn,Northern significantly in winter and spring. Meanwhile,China's 12 city groups epitomize these characteristics.
keywords:Urbanization  Metadata  City Groups
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