TraCE-21ka的模拟评估及误差分析
投稿时间: 2018-04-14  最后修改时间: 2018-05-11  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
于天雷 南京信息工程大学 raytl@nuist.edu.cn 
程军 南京信息工程大学 chengjun@nuist.edu.cn 
郭品文 南京信息工程大学  
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
中文摘要:TraCE-21ka是全球首个利用全耦合模式针对末次盛冰期(LGM)至今气候演变的瞬变模拟。本文利用现代观测资料、LGM和全新世中期(MH)重建的冻土资料对TraCE-21ka的模拟结果做了评估。分析表明TraCE-21ka能够较好地模拟现代大尺度环流和降水的空间形态,对东亚地区的模拟冬季较好而夏季欠佳。TraCE-21ka模拟的现代时期与观测相比偏冷,北半球平均表面温度比观测低3-4°C,基于现代温度误差的分析表明TraCE-21ka模拟的东亚地区气候演变的信度较低。对于历史特征时期,重建的连续冻土边界线指示TraCE-21ka模拟的亚欧大陆在LGM(MH)时期偏暖(冷),即低估了LGM以来气候变化的幅度,对气候变化幅度的低估可归因于模式的气候敏感性偏低。本文为合理开展TraCE-21ka与地质记录的比对分析以及其它瞬变古气候模拟资料的分析提供了参考。
中文关键词:古气候瞬变模拟,TraCE-21ka,模拟评估,冻土
 
The evaluation and error analysis of TraCE-21ka
Abstract:TraCE-21ka is the first transient simulation about the climatic evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to Present Day (PD) using fully coupled climate model in the world. This paper utilizes the PD observational data and the reconstructed permafrost data during LGM and Mid-Holocene (MH) to evaluate the performance of TraCE-21ka. The results show TraCE-21ka can well simulate the spatial pattern of large-scale circulation and precipitation during PD period. For East Asia, its simulation is satisfactory in winter while deficient in summer. Moreover, the TraCE-21ka simulated north hemispheric surface temperature is much colder than observation (about 3-4°C in average). The analyses based on PD temperature error suggest that TraCE-21ka may not well reproduce the evolution of East Asian climate. For historical periods, the reconstructed continuous permafrost boundaries indicate that the Eurasia is warmer (colder) in TraCE-21ka than reality during LGM (MH) period, which means TraCE-21ka underestimates the amplitude of climate change. The underestimation of climate change can be attributed to the lower climate sensitivity of TraCE-21ka comparing to the real world. Our results are not only helpful for further comparison between TraCE-21ka and geological proxy data, but also provide reference for analyzing other paleoclimate transient simulation results.
keywords:paleoclimate transient modeling, TraCE-21ka, model evaluation, permafrost
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