1951—2015年进入东海的台风频数及登陆点的变化
投稿时间:2017-08-03  修订日期:2017-11-25  点此下载全文
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陆晓婕 南京信息工程大学 海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044  
董昌明 南京信息工程大学 海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044 cmdong@nuist.edu.cn 
李刚 南京信息工程大学 海洋科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41476022);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20150912)
中文摘要:利用日本气象厅提供的西北太平洋台风最佳路径观测资料,选取东海海区为研究范围,统计处理1951—2015年台风各要素资料,研究进入东海海区的台风频数、台风登陆点位置、台风频数及登陆点位置与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)及ENSO的关系、影响台风生成和移动的因素等。结果表明:1)每年的7—9月为东海海区的台风高发季,其中8月最高,登陆台风也有相似趋势。2)进入东海海域的台风频数存在较明显的年际和年代际变化趋势。当PDO处于暖位相时,台风频数较小且有上升趋势,反之亦然。El Niño年进入东海海区的台风频数较常年减少,反之亦然。Niño3.4指数与台风频数整体上为负相关关系,相关系数为-0.32且通过90%置信度检验。3)进入东海海域的台风登陆点纬度变化较大,处于24~36°N之间,且有年代际变化特征。当PDO处于暖(冷)位相时,台风登陆点偏北(偏南)且有向北(南)移动的趋势。而登陆点纬度与ENSO的关系较为复杂。4)西北太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度是引起台风频数及登陆点位置变化的主要原因之一。当PDO处于冷位相时,西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱,且副高中心向东向北方向移动,导致进入东海的台风频数偏多,且台风登陆点偏北,反之亦然。
中文关键词:东海  台风频数  登陆点  PDO  ENSO
 
Variations of typhoon frequency and landfall position in East China Sea from 1951 to 2015
Abstract:Changes in the frequency of typhoon occurrence and landfall location in the East China Sea are investigated by using the best typhoon track data in Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1951 to 2015.This 65-yr record is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA).This paper focuses on the East China Sea region,investigating typhoon frequency,landfall position,the relationship between typhoon occurrence(landfall position) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and El Niño/La Niña and Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and the possible factors affecting typhoon generation and movement.The results indicate that:(1)July-August-September is the season of the highest occurrence for typhoons in the East China Sea,with the highest number of typhoons occurring in August.Typhoons making landfall in this region have similar behavior.(2)The occurrence of typhoons entering the East China Sea has both interannual and interdecadal trends.During the PDO warm(cool) phase,fewer(more) typhoons occur and the occurrence shows an upward(downward) trend.Fewer(more) typhoons enter the East China Sea during El Niño(La Niña) periods.Niño3.4 index and typhoon frequency show a negative correlation as a whole,with the correlation coefficient of -0.32 at 90% confidence level.(3)The latitude of the typhoon landfall point varies greatly,ranging from 24 to 36°N.A certain interdecadal change is also observed.During the PDO warm(cool) phase,the typhoon landfalls are further north(south) and have a tendency to move northward(southward).However,the relationship between typhoon landfall latitude and ENSO is relatively complex and needs further investigation.(4)The primary reason for the change of the typhoon occurrence and landfall may be attributed to the location and strength of the subtropical high in Northwest Pacific.During the PDO cold(warm) phase,the Northwest Pacific subtropical high weakens(strengthens) and the subtropical high moves in an eastward and northward(westward and southward) direction.Under the condition of a strong(weak) tropical convergence zone over Northwest Pacific,this kind of atmospheric circulation contributes to the generation of typhoon,leading to the high(low) frequency of typhoons entering the East China Sea and the further north(south) typhoon landing point.
keywords:East China Sea  typhoon frequency  landing position  PDO  ENSO
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