基于全球及区域气候模式的江苏省降水变化趋势预估
投稿时间: 2018-03-16  最后修改时间: 2018-06-15  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
李熠 江苏省气象科学研究所 judyliyi@sohu.com 
买苗 江苏省气候中心  
中文摘要:利用观测资料,8个全球耦合气候系统模式的集合平均以及区域气候模式(RegCM4)的结果,通过方差分析、相关分析、趋势分析、扰动法等方法对模式性能进行了评估,并对未来江苏省在RCP8.5高端排放情景下降水的变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,至2020、2030和2050年,全球模式模拟的江苏省年平均降水在未来有逐渐增加的趋势,线性增加率约为7mm/10a。至2050年,江苏省年平均降水量将增加2%左右;区域模式模拟的年平均降水在未来线性增加率为1.5mm/10a,变化不显著。区域模式模拟的夏季降水在未来有所增加,最多可增加20~30%,但增幅随时间逐渐减小;全球模式模拟的夏季降水比现在有所减少,至2050年,减少了大约10%。区域模式模拟的冬季降水在未来不同时间段均比现在有所减少,同现在相比,最多可减少30~40%;而全球模式模拟的冬季降水在未来则是先减少,后增加,至2050年,比现在大约增加10%。对于不同季节,总体而言,南部地区降水量的变化较北部地区显著。对于极端降水事件来说,未来江苏省小雨日数减少,而暴雨日数则微弱增加。但由于全球模式本身的性能、区域模式对全球模式的依赖性以及温室气体排放的不确定性使上述预估结果仍具有不确定性。因此,未来还需要更多全球模式与区域模式结果的进一步检验,以减少预估的不确定性。
中文关键词:模式  江苏  降水  预估
 
Projection of precipitation over Jiangsu province based on global and regional climate models
Abstract:Based on observational data and simulations of eight coupled climate models ensemble and regional climate model (RegCM4), the performance of models are evaluated through the methods of variance analysis, correlation analysis, trend analysis and perturbation method, and the precipitation change in Jiangsu province in the future is projected under the scenario of RCP8.5. The results show that the annual mean precipitation of Jiangsu province will gradually increase in the future, and the linear increase rate is about 7mm/10a in the global model simulation while 1.5mm/10a in the regional model simulation. The annual mean precipitation in Jiangsu province will increase by about 2% by 2050 but the change is not significant in regional model simulation. The summer precipitation according to the regional model simulation increases in the future, which can increase by up to 20 ~ 30%, but the rate of increase decreases with time. In the global model simulation, the summer precipitation has decreased by about 10% by 2050 compared with that at present. The winter precipitation in the regional model simulation has decreased in different periods in the future, and can be reduced about 30 ~ 40% compared with that at present. The winter precipitation in global model simulation in the future will be reduced first, then increase, and by 2050, it will be about 10% higher than that today. For different seasons, the precipitation change in the south region is more remarkable than that in the north region. In the case of extreme precipitation, the light rain days in Jiangsu province decrease, mainly in the south region while the heavy rain days increase slightly, but not significantly. However, due to the performance of the global models itself, the dependence of the regional models on the global models and the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emissions, the projected results are still uncertain. More global and regional models and further tests are needed in the future to reduce the uncertainty of projection.
keywords:Models  Jiangsu  precipitation  projection
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