北极海冰及其与气象要素年际关系的年代际变化
投稿时间: 2016-08-11  最后修改时间: 2016-10-25  点此下载全文
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祁莉 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044 qili@nuist.edu.cn 
徐业佳 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475086);长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目(PCSIRT);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:利用Hadley海冰密集度资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了北极海冰融冰量及其与大气变量年际关系的年代际变化。结果表明,北极海冰存在显著的年代际变化,且有较强的区域性。东西伯利亚海和波弗特海海冰融冰量的平均值变大且方差增大,格陵兰岛以东洋面海冰融冰量的量值和变率均在减弱。对3个不同气候时段内北极海冰融冰量进行EOF分解,前两个模态均在3个气候时段发生显著的年代际变化,东西伯利亚海海冰融冰量的增加与EOF第一模态年代际变化相关,而EOF第二模态则明显造成了波弗特海海冰的年代际消融。并且,与之相应的大气环流也出现了明显的年代际变化,它们与AO/NAO的年际关系也存在年代际转折,融冰量第二模态与AO的年际关系更为紧密,1960-1990年第二模态与AO的相关系数仅为0.186,而1980-2010年相关系数已升高至0.367。整个北冰洋的海冰融冰量与AO的年际关系也出现了年代际增强,尤其是东西伯利亚地区海冰融冰量与AO的年际关系发生了年代际增强,1980-2010年两者相关达到了0.4以上。而波弗特海融冰量与AO相关系数变化较大,1960-1990年其的相关系数高达-0.488,1980年后却减少至0.161。然而AO却未发生明显的年代际变化。造成北极海冰融冰量及其与大气变量年际关系发生年代际变化的主要因子之一是波弗特高压,其年代际减弱使得极区向东西伯利亚海和波弗特海的海冰输送减弱,导致这两个区域海冰减少,使得AO与北极海冰的年际关系发生了年代际转折。
中文关键词:北极海冰  融冰量  北极涛动  年代际变化  波弗特高压
 
Interdecadal variations of Arctic sea ice and its interannual relationship with meteorological elements
Abstract:Based on the Hadley sea ice concentration data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,this paper analyzes interdecadal variations of ice-melting amount of sea ice in Arctic region and its interannual relationship with atmospheric variables.Results show that:Arctic sea ice has a significant interdecadal variation and strong regional characteristics.Average and variance of ice-melting amount of East Siberian Sea and Beaufort Sea increase,while average and variance of ice-melting amount in ocean east Greenland decrease.Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is made on ice-melting amount of Arctic sea ice during the three different climate periods (1960-1990,1970-2000 and 1980-2010).The first two EOF modes both have significant interdecadal variations during the three different climate periods.The increase of ice-melting amount of East Siberian Sea is correlated to interdecadal variation of the first EOF mode,while the second EOF mode causes interdecadal melting of sea ice of Beaufort Sea significantly.Furthermore,the corresponding general atmospheric circulation also shows significant interdecadal variations,their interannual relationships with AO/NAO also have interdecadal transition.The second EOF mode of ice-melting amount has a closer interannual relationship with AO,and their correlation coefficient is just 0.186 from 1960 to 1990,but it increases to 0.367 from 1980 to 2010.There is an interdecadal enhancement in the interannual relationship between ice-melting amount of the whole Arctic Ocean and AO,especially in the interannual relationship between ice-melting amount of East Siberia region and AO,and their correlation coefficient is more than 0.4 from 1980 to 2010.The correlation coefficient between ice-melting amount of Beaufort Sea and AO varies greatly,and it reaches up to-0.488 from 1960 to 1990,but it decreases to 0.161 after 1980.However,AO has no significant interdecadal variation.It is Beaufort high that mainly causes the interdecadal variation of interannual relationship between ice-melting amount of sea ice in Arctic region and atmospheric variables.The interdecadal weakening of Beaufort high leads to the decrease of transportation of sea ice from Pole region to East Siberia Sea and Beaufort Sea,resulting in the reduction of sea ice in the two regions,which causes the interdecadal transition of interannual relationship between AO and Arctic sea ice.
keywords:Arctic sea ice  ice-melting amount  Arctic Oscillation  interdecadal variation  Beaufort high
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