WRF模式不同云参数化方案对暴雨预报能力检验及集成试验
投稿时间: 2018-03-06  最后修改时间: 2018-03-21  点此下载全文
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梅钦 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点试验室, meiqin740@163.com 
智协飞 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点试验室南京大气科学联合研究中心 zhi@nuist.edu.cn 
王佳 江苏省气候中心  
基金项目:北极阁开放研究基金南京大气科学联合研究中心重点项目(NJCAR2016ZD04);国家自然科学基金项目 (41575104);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:利用WRFV3.6的8种微物理方案和6种积云参数化方案对湖北及其周边地区夏季12次暴雨过程进行回报,分析各种方案对暴雨预报的影响。结果显示,各种方案均能较好地预报出降水过程,但其降水强度以及降水范围仍存在一定的差异。当积云参数化方案为KF方案,对Lin、WSM6、Thompson、Morrison 2-mom、CAM5.1、WDM5、WDM6、NSSL 2-mom 8种微物理方案做敏感性试验时,发现CAM5.1方案优于其他7种微物理方案,Morrison 2-mom次之。当微物理方案为CAM5.1时,对KF、BMJ、GD、SAS、G3D、Tiedtke 6种积云参数化方案做敏感性试验时,发现在不同量级降水的预报中,6种积云参数化方案各有优劣。综合考虑,GD,SAS,Tiedtke优于其他3种方案。在此基础上开展了多方案集成试验,结果表明集合平均EMN(Ensemble Mean)在一定程度上可以减少预报误差,降低单个成员预报的不确定性。
中文关键词:暴雨,WRF模式,微物理方案,积云参数化方案,多方案集成试验
 
Verification and Ensemble Experiments of Rainstorm Forecasting Using Different Cloud Parameterization Scheme in WRF Model
Abstract:To evaluate the effect of various schemes on rainstorm forecast in summer at Hubei and the surrounding areas, 8 microphysical schemes and 6 cumulus parameterization schemes of WRFV3.6 are used to forecast 12 rainstorm cases. The results show that the prediction effects of different schemes are not the same on different scales. For the eight microphysical schemes (Lin, WSM6, Thompson, Morrison 2-mom, CAM5.1, WDM5, WDM6, NSSL 2-mom), Combined with TS scores, anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC) and root mean square error(RMSE), it can be concluded that CAM5.1 is better than others, followed by Morrison 2-mom. Under the condition of CAM5.1, the sensitivity test results of six cumulus parameterization schemes (KF, BMJ, GD, SAS, G3D and Tiedtke) indicate that, the six programs both have advantages and disadvantages in the prediction of different magnitude. Taking into account, GD, SAS, Tiedtke are better than the other. On these bases, the ensemble forecasting experiments are carried out by the ensemble mean (EMN). The results show that the method can reduce the forecast error and the uncertainty of individual member forecasts.
keywords:rainstorm, WRF model, microphysical schemes, cumulus parameterization scheme, multi-scheme ensemble experiment
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