基于TIGGE资料的东亚地面气温预报的不一致性研究
投稿时间: 2017-03-06  最后修改时间: 2017-03-28  点此下载全文
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智协飞 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/东亚季风与区域气候变化科技创新团队, 江苏 南京 210044;南京大气科学联合研究中心, 江苏 南京 210009 zhi@nuist.edu.cn 
胡耀兴 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/东亚季风与区域气候变化科技创新团队, 江苏 南京 210044  
俞剑蔚 南京大气科学联合研究中心, 江苏 南京 210009;江苏省气象台, 江苏 南京 210009  
郭换换 洛阳市气象局, 河南 洛阳 471000  
基金项目:北极阁开放研究基金-南京大气科学联合研究中心基金资助项目(NJCAR2016ZD04);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575104);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
中文摘要:基于TIGGE资料中欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和中国气象局(CMA)3个集合预报系统的地面气温集合预报资料,运用跳跃指数研究了3个集合预报系统中东亚地面气温的控制预报及集合平均预报的不一致性。结果表明,各个集合预报系统地面气温预报的时间平均不一致性指数差异较大。ECMWF时间不一致性指数最小,NCEP次之,CMA最大。另外NCEP的控制预报、ECMWF的控制预报和集合平均预报,这三者的时间平均不一致性指数随预报时效延长而增加,且集合平均预报一致性优于控制预报。而对于CMA预报的不一致性,无论是控制预报还是集合平均预报总体上都稳定地保持在较高的水平。此外,ECMWF的地面气温冬(夏)季预报的不一致性相对较强(弱),且单点跳跃随预报时效延长变化不明显,而控制预报和集合平均预报的异号两点跳跃以及三点跳跃出现的频率总体上随预报时效延长略有增加。
中文关键词:TIGGE资料  地面气温  预报不一致性  集合预报  跳跃指数
 
On the inconsistency of the surface air temperature forecasts over East Asia using TIGGE data
Abstract:Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) ensemble forecasts of 2 m surface air temperature taken from TIGGE data archive,the inconsistency of the surface air temperature has been investigated.The results show that the time mean inconsistency index of each model for surface air temperature is quite different.The time mean inconsistency index of ECMWF forecast system is the smallest,followed by NCEP,and CMA is the largest.In addition,the inconsistency indices of the control forecast in the NCEP forecast system,the control forecast and the ensemble mean forecast in the ECMWF forecast system increase with the forecast lead time.In the ensemble forecast system,the ensemble mean forecast is superior to the control forecast,especially for longer term forecast.But in the CMA forecast system,the inconsistency indices of the control forecast and the ensemble mean forecast are substantially stable at a higher level.The further study indicated that the time mean inconsistency index of the surface air temperature forecast in the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system varies with areas and seasons.The forecast inconsistency index during winter(summer) is relatively larger(smaller) among four seasons in a year.Furthermore,the occurrence frequency of the forecast flip doesn't vary with forecast lead time significantly,while that of the forecast flip-flop and forecast flip-flop-flip increases with the forecast lead time considerably.
keywords:TIGGE data  surface air temperature  forecast inconsistency  ensemble forecast  jumpiness index
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