同化自动站资料建立三峡地区2014年1月高分辨率温度场的模拟研究
投稿时间: 2017-02-20  最后修改时间: 2017-03-31  点此下载全文
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江志红 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044 zhjiang@nuist.edu.cn 
祝亚鹏 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044  
马红云 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044  
邱欣 Novus环境公司, 加拿大 安大略省 N1G4T2  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41675081);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603804)
中文摘要:利用WRF (Weather Research Forecast)模式及其自带的Nudging同化系统,结合通过质量控制的三峡地区2 588个自动站的2014年1月观测资料,进行同化自动站观测试验,建立了三峡地区3 km高分辨率气温场,并与加入NCEP稀疏观测站点的稀疏场试验和未同化试验在月平均温度场和逐时温度变化两个方面进行了综合对比分析。结果表明:与未同化试验相比,同化自动站观测后,大部分地区平均气温场偏差减小至±0.5℃以内;平原、丘陵、山区气温逐时绝对偏差均减小至1℃以内,逐时气温的相关系数超过0.9,偏差范围减小1.14℃以上,均方根误差减幅达0.55℃以上;同化自动站观测后,泰勒图中平原和丘陵的相对标准差接近于1,山区减小至1.11。同化自动站观测试验的结果优于同化稀疏场试验,较好地建立了三峡地区2014年1月气温场,为该地区建立高分辨率温度场提供了有效参考。
中文关键词:WRF模式  自动站观测  Nudging  资料同化  三峡地区  高分辨率
 
Simulation study of establishment of high resolution temperature field by assimilating automatic station data in the Three Gorges area in January 2014
Abstract:Based on the WRF(Weather Research Forecast) model and its own Nudging assimilation system,combined with the observation data(after quality control) of 2 588 automatic stations in the Three Gorges area in January 2014,this paper carries out the assimilation test of automatic station and establishes the high resolution temperature field of 3 km in the Three Gorges area.Comprehensive comparative analyses are carried out on the monthly mean temperature field and the hourly temperature change among the results of the assimilation test of automatic station,the non-assimilation test and the assimilation test of sparse field with NCEP sparse observation stations.Results show that compared with the non-assimilation test,the average deviation of temperature field is reduced to ±0.5℃ in most areas for the assimilation test of automatic station.Absolute deviation of the hourly temperature is reduced to less than 1℃ in plains,hills and mountains.Correlation coefficient of the hourly temperature is above 0.9,the temperature deviation ranges of the three types of terrain are reduced by more than 1.14℃,and the root mean square errors are reduced to more than 0.55℃.Relative standard deviations are close to 1 in plains and hills,and relative standard deviation is reduced to 1.11 in mountains in the Taylor diagram for the assimilation test of automatic station.The assimilation test of automatic station is superior to the assimilation test of sparse field.The assimilation test of automatic station has a good effect on the establishing of temperature field of the Three Gorges area in January 2014,which provides an effective reference for the establishment of high resolution temperature field in the area.
keywords:WRF model  automatic station observation  Nudging  data assimilation  Three Gorges area  high resolution
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