不同时间尺度上黄淮流域夏季降水异常成因及预测研究
投稿时间: 2018-02-05  最后修改时间: 2018-02-28  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
顾伟宗 山东省气候中心 longmarch529@163.com 
中文摘要:利用1961-2006年中国降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料,分析了黄淮流域夏季降水的年代际和年际变化特征,研究了不同时间尺度上降水异常成因。结果表明:当太平洋年代际处在暖(冷)位相时,南方涛动偏弱(强),年代际尺度上黄淮地区夏季降水偏多(少)。在年际及以下尺度上,当印度洋北部海温偏高、南部偏低时,500hPa上,中高纬乌拉尔山以东和鄂霍次克海附近出现明显的双阻塞高压,副热带高压偏强;200hPa西风急流略偏南,黄淮流域上空西风偏强,为反气旋环流;850hPa风场上,黄淮流域上空出现西南-东北风的切变,使得急流出口区右侧次级环流的异常上升支恰好位于黄淮流域上空,高低空环流的这种配置导致了黄淮流域上空降水偏多。进一步分析发现,利用印度洋海温作为预测因子,建立预测模型,对黄淮流域降水有较高的预测能力。
中文关键词:黄淮区域 夏季降水 时间尺度
 
Study of Reason and Prediction of the Summer Precipitation in Huanghuai area on Different Time Scales
Abstract:Using precipitation data in china,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and SST data provided from NOAA during 1961-2006, the interdecadal and interanual character and the reason of precipitation in Huanghuai area were studied. When the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) was in warm(cold) phase, Southern Oscillation was weaker(stronger) and the precipitation in Huanghuai area was more(less) on interdecadal scale. On interannual scale when the SST was higher in the north of India Ocean and lower in the south of India Ocean, the west pacific subtropical high was stronger and the double Blocking High appeared near the Ural mountains and Okhotsk on 500hPa. The westerly jet was on the south of the average position. The anticyclone appeared on the Huanghuai area. The shear of northeast and southwest wind appeared on Huanghuai in 850hPa wind. The circulation led to more precipitation in Huanghuai area. It is founded that the prediction model built on the India Ocean SST had a better prediction ability on the precipitation in Huanghuai area.
keywords:Huanghuai Area, Summer Precipitation, Time scale
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