丝绸之路遥相关年代际变化特征及其与东亚夏季风的关系
投稿时间: 2018-02-03  最后修改时间: 2018-03-03  点此下载全文
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田晨光 华东师范大学地科院、崇明生态岛研究院、地理信息科学教育部重点实验室 18646963990@163.com 
乐群 华东师范大学地科院、崇明生态岛研究院、地理信息科学教育部重点实验室 qyue@geo.ecnu.edu.cn 
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973项目):“气候变化下中国区域增长与公平控制”(2012CB955803)
中文摘要:本文分析了丝绸之路遥相关的空间模态和年代际变化特征,讨论了东亚夏季风和丝绸之路遥相关在年代际的关系,并寻找海温和海冰等外部强迫因子在年代际尺度上对丝绸之路遥相关的影响,主要结论为:(1)在年代际尺度上,丝绸之路遥相关在20世纪50年代到70年代中期和20世纪90年代末主要处于负位相,70年代中期到20世纪90年代末则主要处于正位相;(2)丝绸之路遥相关与东亚夏季风在年代际尺度上有着显著的相关,在其正(负)位相时,东亚夏季风偏强(弱);(3)太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋年代际振荡和北极海冰可作为丝绸之路遥相关在年代际尺度变化的重要前兆因子。
中文关键词:丝绸之路遥相关  东亚夏季风  太平洋年代际振荡
 
The characteristics of decadal variability of Silk Road Pattern and Its Relationship with East Asian Summer Monsoon
Abstract:Based on several reanalysis datasets, we analyzed the Silk Road pattern (SRP) mode and principal component’s decadal change characteristics, discussed the relationships between SRP and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and sought the influences of the external force factors such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) on SRP on decadal time scale. The results show that (1) On decadal time scale, from the 1950s to the mid-1970s and from the late 1990s to the present (the mid-1970s to the late 1990s), it was mainly in the positive (opposite) phase; (2) SRP is significantly related to the EASM on the decadal time scale and when SRP is on positive (negative) phase, the EASM is stronger (weaker); (3) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and arctic sea ice are important precursors to SRP on decadal time scale.
keywords:Silk Road pattern (SRP)  East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM)  Pacific Decadal oscillation (PDO)
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