过去500年印度夏季风降水和ENSO的关系
投稿时间: 2017-11-23  最后修改时间: 2018-03-10  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
李方腾 南京信息工程大学 气候动力学中心江苏 南京 210044 lfangteng@126.com 
刘飞 南京信息工程大学 气候动力学中心江苏 南京 210044 liuf@nuist.edu.cn 
柴静 南京信息工程大学 气候动力学中心江苏 南京 210044  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:为了研究大的背景场对ENSO和印度夏季风降水关系的调制作用,来更好的预报气候变暖背景下印度夏季风降水的年际变化,本文通过重建的十套ENSO指数和印度降水资料,研究了ENSO和印度夏季风降水在过去500年的关系,其存在的原因以及如何理解这一现象。其中,主要侧重于ENSO对印度夏季风影响。结果表明,第一,过去500年(1470~1999) ENSO和印度夏季风降水的关系并非是一成不变的,大体上呈现负相关,在小冰期(Little Ice Age, LIA)负相关程度较弱,现代暖期(Current Warm Period, CWP)负相关有所加强,而19世纪80年代之后负相关又开始减弱。第二,过去500年印度夏季风降水异常和ENSO关系是确定存在的,并非是随机产生的。第三,小冰期和现代暖期,印度地区夏季降水异常与Ni駉指数的振幅和周期有很大的不同,现代暖期明显较大。但二者平均状态相差并不大。即相对于小冰期,现代暖期ENSO振幅增强,周期偏大,导致印度夏季风和ENSO的关系呈现较强的负相关。
中文关键词:印度夏季风,降水,ENSO
 
Relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO over the past 500 years
Abstract:In order to study the modulation of the background field to the relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon precipitation, thus getting better forecast of the interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation under the climate warming background, the reconstruction of the ten sets of ENSO indices and the precipitation data of East Asia were provided to investigate the relationship between ENSO and the India summer monsoon rainfall in the past 500 years, the reason behind it and how to understand this phenomenon. Among them, the impact of ENSO on Indian summer monsoon is what we mainly focus on. The results show that, firstly, the relationship between the ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is not immutable over the past 500 years (1470~1999), generally showed a negative correlation, negative correlation degree was weak in the LIA, while it has been strengthened in the CWP, but after 1980s it began to weaken. Secondly, the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall anomaly and ENSO over the past 500 years has been determined, not randomly generated. Thirdly, the amplitude and cycle of abnormal Indian summer monsoon precipitation and Niño indices are very different between LIA and CWP, the latter is significantly larger. But the average states of the two periods are almost same. That is to say, relative to the LIA, the ENSO amplitude increases, period becomes larger during the CWP, which lead to a stronger negative correlation between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO.
keywords:Indian summer monsoon  precipitation  ENSO
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