基于“配料法”的东北冷涡暴雨预报研究
投稿时间: 2017-11-16  最后修改时间: 2017-12-25  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
杨雪艳 吉林省气候中心 jlsqxtybk@sina.com 
基金项目:中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CMAGJ2013Z03)
中文摘要:本文研究了1961-2014年东北冷涡暴雨的气候特征,分析了低空急流、切变对冷涡暴雨的影响;对4256站次冷涡暴雨的比湿、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、散度、垂直速度、K指数等对暴雨有显著影响的因子进行了诊断分析。研究总结出了冷涡暴雨的水汽因子、 动力因子、 热力不稳定因子的阈值,并利用配料法构建了冷涡暴雨的配料模型,并进行了业务化应用试验。结果表明,基于配料法的冷涡暴雨预报TS评分比ECMWF和T639暴雨预报提高了7.4%和11.1%。利用“配料法”进行冷涡暴雨预报,明显减少了暴雨的漏报率,对防灾减灾具有重要意义。
中文关键词:东北冷涡  暴雨  配料法
 
Forecast of Heavy Rain Caused by the Northeast Cold Vortex Using "Ingredients" Method
Abstract:Using the NCEP reanalysis data and weather observation data, Analyses the climatic characteristics of heavy rain that caused by northeast cold vortex in 1961 - 2014, and the effects of low - level jet and shear on cold - vortex heavy rain , Diagnosed and analyzed specific humidity, water vapor flux, water vapor flux divergence, divergence, vertical velocity and K index on 4256 heavy rain cases that caused by northeast cold vortex, determined water vapor factor, power factor, thermal instability factor threshold of the northeast cold vortex heavy rain. Based on the ingredients, constructed the compound model of cold vortex heavy rain. Using the numerical prediction products of ECWMF and T639, the cold vortex heavy rain ingredient model was applied to daily forecast work. By tested the quality of the heavy rain forecast in 2015 - 2016 ,the results show that the TS score based on the ingredients is 7.4 % and 11.1 % higher than that of the ECWRF and T639 heavy rain forecast, so it has a high practical application value. It is greatly reduces the rate of missing reports by using "Ingredients" method on forecast of heavy rain caused by the northeast cold vortex, , and it is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation.
keywords:Northeast cold vortex  heavy rain  Ingredients
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