基于再分析资料与观测资料的中国低温阈值变化特征研究
投稿时间: 2017-09-03  最后修改时间: 2017-11-15  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
高庆九 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 gaoqj51@126.com 
余汶樯 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院  
周小艳 南京信大高科技发展有限公司  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:利用1979-2013年中国192个台站逐日最低温度观测资料和NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE、JRA-55、ERA-Interim四种再分析资料及1979-2004年均一化资料,计算低温阈值并从阈值的气候态、年际变化和长期趋势等方面进行比较。研究发现:与观测结果相比,均一化资料阈值在东北、内蒙古西部和两广等地偏低,在青藏高原东侧、新疆北部和黄河中下游偏高,线性趋势则相反;再分析资料阈值在南方偏低东北偏高,相关系数表明四种再分析产品在东部可信度高于西部;再分析资料能显示内蒙古中西部的降温趋势和青藏高原的增温趋势,但在数值和范围上有差异,且均低估了观测资料中华北地区的显著升温现象;再分析资料均能反映观测资料阈值全区一致和东北与其他地区反相的空间分布及其年际变化特征,仅JRA-55和ERA-Interim可再现年代际变化特征。
中文关键词:低温阈值  观测资料  均一化资料  再分析资料  适用性评估
 
Research on the characteristics of low-temperature threshold in China based on reanalysis data and observation data
Abstract:Based on the daily minimum temperature of 192 gauge stations in China from 1979 to 2013 and the reanalysis minimum temperature of NCEP / NCAR, NCEP / DOE, JRA-55 and ERA-Interim, and homogenization temperature data from 1979 to 2004, the low-temperature thresholds were calculated, features and differences between reanalysis and observations were explored on climatology, interannual variation and long-term trend. Results showed that: compared with the observations,the thresholds of homogenization data is lower in northeast China, western Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Guangxi while higher in the east of the Tibetan Plateau, northern Xinjiang and Yellow River, but linear trend is the opposite. And the thresholds of reanalysis data is lower in the south of China while higher in the northeast, correlation coefficient displays their credibility is betterin the east of China than that in the west. Reanalysis data can capture the features of cooling trend over the central and western Inner Mongolia and warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau, but there are differences in values and ranges, and underestimate the significant warming in North China Plain. The thresholds derived from four reanalysis data can depict the characteristics of nationwide consistent andreverse between the northeast and other regions in observation thresholds. The feature of interannual variability can be inferred from the four reanalysis, but only the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim can reappear the interdecadal variation.
keywords:Low-temperature threshold  Observations  Homogenization data  Reanalysis data  Applicability evaluation
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