1951-2015年间进入东海台风频数及登陆点位置的变化研究
投稿时间: 2017-08-03  最后修改时间: 2018-03-06  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
陆晓婕 南京信息工程大学 lu_xiaojie@foxmail.com 
董昌明 南京信息工程大学 cmdong@nuist.edu.cn 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41476022),江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20150912)
中文摘要:本文对进入东中国海海区台风频数及登陆台风位置的变化情况进行了研究。主要是利用了日本气象厅(JMA)提供的西北太平洋台风最佳台风路径观测数据资料,选取东中国海海区为研究对象,将1951-2015共65年的台风各要素数据资料进行统计处理,重点关注进入东海海区的台风频数、台风登陆点位置、台风频数及登陆点位置与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)及ENSO现象的关系、影响台风生成和移动的因素等。通过分析得到:(1)每年7-9月为台风在东中国海海区的高发季节,其中8月最高,登陆台风也有相似的趋势。(2)进入东海海域的台风频数存在较为明显的年际和年代际变化趋势。当PDO处于暖位相时,台风频数较小且有上升趋势。El Ni駉年间进入东海海区的台风频数较常年少。(3)进入东海海域的台风登陆点纬度变化波动较大,并存在一定的年代际变化。当PDO处于暖(冷)位相时,台风登陆点偏北(南)且有向北(南)移动的趋势。(4)西北太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度是引起台风频数及登陆点位置变化的主要原因之一。当PDO处于冷位相时,西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱,且副高中心向东向北移动,从而导致进入东海的台风频数偏多,且台风登陆点偏北。
中文关键词:东海  台风  频数  登陆点  PDO  ENSO  副高脊线
 
A Study on the Variation of Typhoon Frequency and Landing Point in East China Sea from 1951 to 2015
Abstract:The variation in the frequency of typhoon occurrence and landfall location in the East China Sea were analyzed by using the best typhoon track data in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. This 65-year (1951-2015) typhoon record was provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). We focused on the East China Sea, investigating typhoon frequency, landfall, the relationship with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO, and factors affecting typhoon generation and movement. The results indicated that: (1) Autumn is the season of highest occurrence for typhoons in the East China Sea, with the highest number of typhoons occurring in August. The landfall behaved similarly. (2) The occurrence of typhoons entering the East China Sea had both interannual and interdecadal variation: when the PDO is in the warm (cool) phase, fewer (more) typhoons occur and the occurrence showed an upward trend; fewer typhoons entered the East China Sea during El Niño periods. (3) The latitude of the typhoon landfall point varied greatly, and there was a certain interdecadal change: when the PDO is in the warm (cool) phase, the typhoon landfalls were more northward (southward) and had a tendency to move northward. (4) The primary reason for the variation in the typhoon occurrence and landfall was the location of the subtropical high in the northwest Pacific. When the PDO was in the cold phase, the northwest Pacific subtropical high intensity was weak and the subtropical high moved eastward and northward, leading to the high frequency of typhoons entering the East China Sea, and the more north typhoon landing point.
keywords:East China Sea  Typhoon  Landing Position  PDO  ENSO
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