海河流域近60年来降水极值的频率分析及时空分布特征
投稿时间: 2017-06-25  最后修改时间: 2017-11-07  点此下载全文
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邵月红 南京信息工程大学 syh@nuist.edu.cn 
中文摘要:以海河流域为研究区,利用MK和F检验对站点的年最大日降雨序列进行趋势、突变和跳跃分析,然后基于水文气象分区线性矩法进行一致区的划分、最优分布的选择和降水极值的的频率估计值计算,并分析其空间分布特征。结果表明:MK趋势和突变检验显示只有8个站点(22.9%)呈现显著下降趋势,通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,特别是京津唐区域具有极显著的下降趋势,突变时段主要发生在1980-1990年。均值和方差的跳跃性显示大部分站点都呈现出显著的向下跳跃,主要分布在流域的滦河子流域和北三河水系;趋势和跳跃的综合分析能够对降水极值有可能引起的旱涝灾害进行更全面合理的判断。不同重现期下的频率估计值的空间分布总体趋势一致,从东南到西北、从沿海到内陆逐渐减少,并与地形表现出很好的一致性;降水极值空间分布的中心主要集中在滦河子流域的遵化和青龙附近;大部分站点50年一遇的的估计值和AMP序列的最大观测值能够保持较好的一致性,间接反映了估计值的合理准确性。
中文关键词:降水极值  线性矩法  水文气象一致区  频率估计值  时空特征
 
Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes in Haihe River basin during 1951–2010
Abstract:This study investigates trend and mutation analysis of the extreme precipitation based on annual maximum of daily precipitation (AMP) data in Haihe River Basin from 1951 to 2010 year. Frequency estimates and spatio characteristics of extreme precipitation can be further calculated and analyzed by using Regional L-Moments method in this paper. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites have no linear trends and mutation at 90 % confidence level, but there is a distinctive decrease trend among the remaining sites with significant confidence, especially in the in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. The shift analysis of the mean and variance show that the AMP of most sites have a linear decrease shift, which distributes in the Luanhe River and Beisanhe River sub-basin. The comprehensive analysis of the trend and shift provide a more reasonable judgment for the drought caused by extreme precipitation. The spatial patterns of frequency estimates are similar to different return periods, which show good agreement with terrain. The quantile values gradually decrease from Southeast to Northwest and from coastal to inland. The center of extreme precipitation mainly concentrated in the Zunhua and Qinglong stations of Luanhe River sub-basin. Frequency estimates of 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of AMP series in the most stations, which can provide more quantitative and scientific basis for decision making.
keywords:Precipitation extremes  L-moments method  Hydrometeorological homogeneous region  Frequency estimates  Spatio-temporal characteristics
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