多模式热带西太平洋夏季降水可预测性比较分析
投稿时间: 2017-03-14  最后修改时间: 2017-04-27  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
黄瑜 南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院 huangyu@nuist.edu.cn 
秦正坤 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院  
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:利用中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP,Institute of Atmospheric Physics)3个大气环流模式(AGCM, Atmospheric General Circulation Model)和欧洲多模式集合预报计划(DEMETER, Development of European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual project)中7个海气耦合模式(CGCM, Coupled General Circulation Model)的1981-2000年共20年集合回报结果,比较了不同模式在热带地区,尤其是热带西太平洋地区夏季平均降水的可预测性差异。结果表明:所有模式都能够较好的再现这20年平均降水的空间分布特征; IAP 9层AGCM能够最好的再现热带西太平洋地区,尤其是140ºE以西地区降水异常的主要空间特征,而CGCM则对海洋上空的降水异常特征有较好的回报能力。回报的降水异常量值偏弱和系统偏移使得IAP的AGCM原始回报技巧评分明显低于CGCM,但是经过统计订正后AGCM对热带夏季降水表现出与CGCM相当的可预测性。对于IAP模式,随着IAP大气模式的不断改进,模式对热带中东太平洋降水预测改进最为明显,但是在太平洋东部地区,IAP大气模式依然存在降水异常偏弱的不足。
中文关键词:多模式, 可预测性, 订正, 热带西太平洋, 夏季降水
 
Evaluation on Summer Rainfall Predictability of 10-models in Tropical-Western Pacific
Abstract:Using ensemble hindcast results (1981-2000) of 3 Atmospheric Global Circulation Models (AGCM) of Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) and 7 air-sea Coupled Global Circulation Models (CGCM) of the Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER), the potential predictability of these AGCMs and CGCMs on summer rainfall in the Tropical, especially in the tropical Western Pacific region is evaluated. Results indicate that: All of these models are able to reproduce well the spatial features of mean rainfall of the past 20 years, IAP 9-AGCM is the best one to reproduce precipitation anomalies in the Tropical Western Pacific, and the spatial characteristics of CGCMs’ anomalous precipitation are more similar to the observation in the ocean area. Due to the weakness and the spatial deviation, the original Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of IAP AGCM is remarkable lower than CGCMs’, but after statistical corrections based on EOF, AGCM shows similar predictability of CGCM. With the successive improvement of IAP AGCM, the most obviously advance of summer rainfall appears in the Midwest Tropical Pacific, but in the Eastern Pacific, hindcast precipitation anomaly remains weak.
keywords:multi-model  predictability  correction, tropical North-West Pacific, summer rainfall
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