江淮流域梅雨期降水的空间非均匀分布与前期海温的关系
投稿时间:2012-04-16  修订日期:2012-05-24  点此下载全文
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王黎娟 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学), 江苏 南京 210044 
wljfw@163.com 
黄青兰 江门市气象局, 广东 江门 529030  
李熠 江苏省气象科学研究所, 江苏 南京 210008  
韩世茹 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044
气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学), 江苏 南京 210044 
 
基金项目:江苏省气象科研基金(KM201207);教育部高校博士点新教师基金课题(20093228120001);江苏省“333”工程;江苏省高校“青蓝工程”
中文摘要:利用中国气象局提供的1978-2007年全国753站逐日降水资料、NECP/NCAR提供的逐日再分析资料和NOAA提供的第2套扩展重建海温资料,从区域整体角度确定了近30 a(1978-2007年)江淮流域梅雨期。采用EOF(empirical orthogonal function,经验正交函数)分析,讨论了江淮流域梅雨期降水空间非均匀分布特征,着重研究了影响江淮梅雨空间非均匀分布的前期海温关键区及关键时段。结果表明:全区一致梅雨旱涝与前期冬季北太平洋鄂霍次克海附近的海温异常有密切的联系。当前期冬季该海域海温偏高时,冬季风偏弱,对应后期梅雨一致偏涝,反之则偏旱。5月南海至台湾和菲律宾以东附近海温偏低,江淮流域梅雨量偏多,反之则偏少。梅雨的南北反相分布与前期秋冬季中印度洋的海温有非常密切的关系,当前一年10月至当年1月中印度洋海温偏高时,梅雨期850 hPa江淮之间易形成切变线,有利于梅雨区“南旱北涝”,反之则“南涝北旱”。梅雨的东西反相分布与前期秋、冬季热带中东太平洋的海温关系密切,ENSO事件有可能通过影响西太平洋副热带高压的东西位置,从而引起东亚大气环流异常,导致梅雨东西分布反相。前期秋季和冬季热带中东太平洋海温偏高年(对应ENSO暖事件),西太副高位置偏西,有利于梅雨区“东旱西涝”,反之则“东涝西旱”。
中文关键词:江淮梅雨  南旱(涝)北涝(旱)  东旱(涝)西涝(旱)  海温
 
Relationship between spatial inhomogeneous distribution of Meiyu rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and previous SST
Abstract:Based on 753 stations' daily rainfall data from China Meteorological Administration,NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data from 1978-2007 and monthly extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(ERSST) data supplied by NOAA,the regional Meiyu periods during 30 years(1978-2007) over the Yangtze-Huaihe river valley(YHRV) are defined from a regional integration viewpoint.The characteristic of spatial inhomogeneous distribution of Meiyu rainfall is discussed based on EOF(empirical orthogonal function)analysis.In particular,the relationship between spatial inhomogeneous distribution of Meiyu rainfall and previous SST(sea surface temperature) is studied.The results show that in-phase change across the whole YHRV region is closely linked to the previous winter SST anomaly near the Sea of Okhotsk in North Pacific.When the SST is higher(lower) than normal,the winter monsoon tends to be abnormally weak(strong) and the next Meiyu is flood(drought).In addition,when the SST from South China Sea(SCS) to east of Taiwan and Philippines is lower(higher) than normal in May,the following Meiyu rainfall is also to increase(decrease).The south-north out-of-phase rainfall pattern over the YHRV is intimately associated with the previous fall and winter SST in middle Indian Ocean.When the middle Indian Ocean SST is abnormally high from last October to January,the wind shear at 850 hPa between the Yangtze and the Huaihe River is apt to come into being,which is favorable for "south flood and north drought" pattern in the YHRV region,and vice versa.The east-west out-of-phase pattern is related to the SST in the eastern and central tropical Pacific in previous autumn and winter.ENSO events may exert an effect on the east-west location of western Pacific subtropical high,which leads to the general circulation anomaly and the east-west out-of-phase pattern of Meiyu further.When the eastern and central tropical Pacific SST is abnormally high(low),which corresponds to warm(cold) ENSO events,the location of western Pacific subtropical high is more westward(eastward) than normal,which leads to "east dry and west wet"("east wet and west dry") pattern over the YHRV.
keywords:Meiyu rainfall over the YHRV  south-north out-of-phase rainfall pattern  east-west out-of-phase rainfall pattern  sea surface temperature
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