中国干旱发生频率的年代际变化特征及趋势分析
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作者单位
祁海霞,智协飞,白永清  
基金项目:教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金;江苏省“六大人才高峰”项目
中文摘要:利用1951年1月—2007年10月中国160站逐月降水资料计算了12个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数(ISP)。依据旱涝等级划分标准统计中国各年代干旱发生的频率,并用Mann Kendall法分析干旱的年代际变化趋势。结果表明,20世纪50年代中国干旱集中发生在新疆南部,60年代主要发生在新疆北端至黄河上游一带地区和以长江中下游为中心的东南部地区,70年代发生在黑龙江、吉林一带以及长江中游地区,80年代发生在西南、华北的两条纬向分布带上,90年代发生在长江、黄河中游地区,21世纪初干旱主要集中在华北北部和内蒙古东部地区。和此前10 a相比,趋向干旱的地区在20世纪50—60年代主要位于新疆北部、内蒙古东部以及长江下游至东南部地区,60—70年代主要位于东北地区,70—80年代主要位于山东、西南东部,80—90年代主要位于长江、黄河中游之间,90年代至今主要位于华北北部、内蒙古东部和黑龙江东部地区。80年代前后中国干旱高发区的地理分布发生了一次年代际跃变。50—70年代中国干旱主要发生在西北、东北、江淮流域以及长江中下游至华南地区,而80年代至今干旱高发区转移到以前的干旱低发区。50年代至今,吉林和黑龙江东部以及自河北至贵州的狭长干旱带的干旱化趋势增长迅速,而新疆、甘肃、青海一带的干旱化趋势显著下降。
中文关键词:标准化降水指数  干旱发生频率  年代际变化  趋势分析
 
Interdecadal variation and trend analysis of the drought occurrence frequency in China
Abstract:Based on the monthly precipitation data of 160 stations in China from January 1951 to October 2007,the 12 month standardized precipitation index(ISP) was calculated.The statistics of the drought occurrence frequency in different decades was conducted according to the drought classification by ISP value.In addition,the interdecadal trend of the drought occurrence was analyzed by using Mann Kendall method.The results show that the drought occurred mainly in southern Xinjiang area in the 1950s and in the 1960s a high occurrence frequency center occurred in the area from northern part of Xinjiang to the upper reaches of the Yellow River as well as in Southeast China around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In the 1970s,drought events mainly took place in Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In the 1980s,the droughts frequently occurred in two zonal belts which extend from Southwest to South China and from Northwest to North China respectively.In the 1990s,the droughts took place in the area between the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yellow River.During the early 21st century,the drought mainly occurred in the northern part of North China and eastern Inner Mongolia.The Mann Kendall trend test shows there was an significant drought tendency in northern Xinjiang,eastern Inner Mongolia and the regions extending from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to Southeast China during the period from the 1950s to 1960s.Northeast China became arid from the 1960s to 1970s.From the 1970s to 1980s,the drought tendency occurred in Shandong Province and the eastern part of Southwest China.The region between the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River became arid from the 1980s to 1990s.From the 1990s to the early 21st century,the drought tendency was significant in the northern part of North China,eastern Inner Mongolia and eastern Heilongjiang.In addition,an abrupt change of high occurrence frequency of droughts appeared around the 1980s.The drought mainly occurred in Northwest China,Northeast China,a region between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as well as South China during the period from the 1950s to 1970s.However,since the 1980s the high occurrence frequency of droughts has moved to places with low drought occurrence frequency in previous decades.From the 1950s till now,the drought tendency has increased rapidly in eastern Jilin and Heilongjiang areas and a narrow strip which extends southwestward from Hebei to Guizhou,while the drought trend has decreased significantly in Xinjiang,Gansu and Qinghai.
keywords:standardized precipitation index  drought occurrence frequency  interdecadal variation  trend analysis
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