粮食生产风险水平的概率分布计算方法
投稿时间: 2001-12-30  最后修改时间: 2002-02-25  点此下载全文
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作者单位
邓国 中国科学院 大气物理研究所, 北京 100029 
王昂生 中国科学院 大气物理研究所, 北京 100029 
周玉淑 中国科学院 大气物理研究所, 北京 100029 
基金项目:世界银行第4期对华技术合作No.A3“中国防灾减灾分析与对策”项目
中文摘要:任意选取中国各地40a以上粮食产量序列,利用正态分布曲线、偏态分布正态化以及解析概率密度曲线积分等方法分别获得粮食产量序列的风险概率,该结果反映了粮食生产不同增减产幅度及相应的概率大小。进行风险估计可以为发展生产、防灾抗灾提供参考。
中文关键词:粮食产量  概率分布  风险水平
 
Grain Yield Risk Level Calculated by Probability Distribution
Abstract:There have been lots of methods on the prediction of grain yield,however these predicted results could not be very accurate due to all kinds of factors that affect on grain yield. In this article,three different kinds of theoretic probability methods (i.e,the normal distribution curve probability,converting the abnormal distribution curve to normal curve,the integration of analytical probability density curve are used to calculate the probability of risk of any given grain yield sequence. These methods showed a wide range of increase and decrease of the crop yield as well as the corresponding high and low probability,which can provide good references to the development of production,natural disaster prevention and alleviation.
keywords:grain yield  probability distribution  risk level
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