青海省月平均气温潜在长期可预报性的估计
投稿时间:1994-04-11  修订日期:1994-09-20  点此下载全文
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作者单位
吴洪宝 南京气象学院气象学系, 南京, 120044 
中文摘要:讨论了气候信号与气候噪声的相互关系和月平均气温预报正确率的上限问题。用青海省25个站逐日气温的多年资料,按3种方法估计了气候信号和气候噪声的方差。结果得出,如果以绝对误差小于均方差的0.68倍作为预报正确的标准,则青海省月平均气温预报正确率的上限约为66%~72%,冬季与夏季差别不大。
中文关键词:月平均气温  气候信号  气候噪声  潜在可预报性
 
EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL LONG-RANGE PREDICTABLITY FOR MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE OF QINGHAI AREA
Abstract:This paper investigates the relationship between climatic signals and noises,and the problem of upper limit of accuracy of long-term forecasting monthly mean temperature,and concerns the evaluation by three methods of the variance of climatic signals and noises from the daily temperature series of 25 stations in the study area.Results show that,with the absolut eerror smaller by a factor of 0.68 than mean square deviation as the criterion of correct prediction,the upper limit would be within 66%~72%,with little difference between the winter and summer prediction.
keywords:monthly mean temperature  climatic signals and noises  potential long-rangepredictability
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