二氧化碳倍增时华北降水量的一种估计
投稿时间: 1992-11-02    点此下载全文
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作者单位
郭英琼 中山大学 
谭冠日 中山大学 
朱天庆 中山大学 
中文摘要:取时间期限为30年,把北京降水量与北半球气温的近似关系看成线性关系,再引入辅助变量--全球二氧化碳(CO2)浓度,增加全球变化的信息,排除误差的干扰,求出回归系数的一致性估计值,得到北半球气温每升1℃时北京降水量的变化,继而求出华北、东北及内蒙与北京相关显著处的降水量变化。若根据CO2倍增时全球增温的最佳估计是3℃,则上述地区降水量将增加15%以上,太行山东麓增加30%以上。
中文关键词:CO2倍增  华北降水  气候变化
 
ESTIMATE PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CHINA WHEN CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE DOUBLED
Abstract:The coefficient of regression is obtained by taking the time scale of 30-year, considering the approximate relationship between the precipitation of Beijing and the temperature of Northern Hemisphere as the linear relationship with the auxiliary variable (the global CO2 concentration) involved, increasing the gobal variation information, excluding the interference of errors. Then the change in precipitation of Beijing when the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere increases by 1℃ is attained to study the change in precipitation in North China, North-east China and Inner Mongolia. Supposed that the global temperature increases by 3℃ when CO2 is doubled, the precipitation in regions mentioned above will increase by more than 15 percent. And the precipitation in the’area east of Mountain Taihang will increase by 30 percent.
keywords:CO2 doubly increased  precipitation in North China  climatic variation
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